Factor Determining Exchange Rates
- Fundamental Reasons
- Balance of Payment : Surplus –> Stronger Home Currency
- Economic Growth Rate : High Growth –> Increase Import –>Fall Home Currency
- Fiscal Policy : Lower Tax –> High Economics Growth
- Monetary Policy : Central bank control on interest and money supply
- Interest Rate : Short Term–>Attract overseas capital–>Strong Home Currency,
Long Term–>Economy down –> Weak Home Currency
- Political Issue : Political Stability –> Steady Currency
- Technical Reason
- Freedom or Restriction on capital movement can effect exchange rates
3.Speculation
- Short Sell
Exchange Rate Mechanism
- Ready or Cash – Same day settlement
- TOM – Next working day settlement
- Spot – Second working day settlement
- Forward – Delivery of fund take place after spot date
- Premium – Forward value of Home Currency > Spot Rate
- Discount – Forward value of Home Currency < Spot Rate
- Direct Quotes – Local currency is variable Ex- 1 USD = Rs.71.10
- Indirect Quotes – Local currency is fixed Ex- Rs.1 = 0.014 USD
- Cross Rate – Particular currency pair are not directly available, the price for the said currency pair is then obtained indirectly with help of cross rate mechanism
- Ex- For GBP/INR first quote USB/INR and GBP/USD than you get GBP/I NR rate